Intrade Markets Predict Mitt Romney 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus Win

Related Posts: Latest Intrade Prediction Market Data on Kentucky and Oregon Democratic Primaries,  Pennsylvania Primary Predictions, Latest Intrade Prediction Market Data on Pennsylvania Primary, Intrade Presidential Winner Chart, Latest Intrade Predictions on North Carolina and Indiana Primaries

Intrade currently has 11 markets running associated with the 2012 Iowa Caucus to be held Tuesday, January 3, 2012.

• In my experience Intrade markets have historically been reliable predictors of election results.  For example, during the 2008 presidential primary season Intrade's closing prices for the Kentucky primary for Hillary Clinton were $96.10 to Barak Obama's $3.00.
• Hillary Clinton won the Kentucky primary with 65% of the vote.
• The 2008 Oregon primary market showed Barak Obama leading with a closing price of $97.00 to Hillary Clinton's $2.80.
• Barak Obama won the Oregon primary with 59% of the vote.
• Currently, Intrade shows the Republican candidates have the following chance of winning today's caucus:                                        

                                        45% Mitt Romney
                                        28% Ron Paul
                                        24% Rick Santorum
                                        0.9% Newt Gingrich
                                        0.2% Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann
                                        0.1% Jon Huntsman

Please check back tomorrow for Iowa caucus results.

Source: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932