Catching Up on the Republican 2012 Primary

I've been tied up with my paying job and not posting as much as I'd like to lately so let's recap what's happened since we left off:

• Huntsman and Perry are out
• The Iowa caucus results will never be official because of the "lost" votes
• Santorum won Iowa, Romney won New Hampshire and Gingrich won South Carolina
• Gingrich has one win and two fourth place finishes.
• Paul has one second, third and fourth place finishes.
• Romney has one win and two second place finishes.
• Santorum has one win, one third and one fifth place finish,
• Florida's closed primary is up next
• Tentative delegate counts are as follows: Romney 34, Gingrich 28, Paul 10 and Santorum 8.

List of 2012 Republican Presidential Candidates by Age

• 76 Ron Paul (August 20, 1935) - Six days after President Roosevelt signed the Social Security Act into law
• 68 Newt Gingrich (June 17, 1943) & Buddy Roemer (October 4, 1943) - Newt was born on the same day as Barrry Manilow
• 64 Mitt Romney (March 12, 1947) - The day of the Truman Doctrine aka the start of the Cold War 
• 61 Rick Perry (March 4, 1950) - Same day as Emilio Estefan
• 53 Rick Santorum (May 10, 1958) - The number one song was Witch Doctor by David Seville
• 51 Jon Huntsman (March 26, 1960) -  Iraq executed 30 for attack on Pres Kassem

Sources:

http://www.ssa.gov/history/tally.html

http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/truman-doctrine-is-announced

http://www.menziesera.com/number_1_hits/1958.shtml

http://www.historyorb.com/date/1960/march/26

New Hampshire 1/7/2012 Debate Transcript

Here's a quick breakdown of the 2012 ABC/Yahoo!/WMUR New Hampshire GOP primary debate from January 7, 2012 and a link to the full transcript of the debate:

Participants:

• Rick Santorum
• New Gingrich
• Ron Paul
• Mitt Romney
• Rick Perry
• Jon Huntsman

Moderators:

• Diane Sawyer
• George Stephanopoulos
• Josh McElveen

Number of Times Each Candidate Spoke (Includes questions, responses & follow ups):

• 41 - Mitt Romney
• 29 - Rick Santorum
• 22 - Ron Paul
• 17 - Newt Gingrichh
• 14 - Jon Huntsman
• 9 - Rick Perry

Source:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/2012-abcyahoowmur-new-hampshire-gop-primary-debate-transcript/2012/01/07/gIQAk2AAiP_blog.html

Five Republican Primaries/Caucuses in January 2012

Related Posts: 2012 Iowa Caucus Democrat and Republican Results,Video: Iowa Caucus Song 2012, Intrade Markets Predict Mitt Romney 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus Win

The following Republican primaries/caucuses have or will occur in January of 2012:

• January 3, 2012 - Iowa
• January 10, 2012 - New Hampshire
• January 21, 2012 - South Carolina
• January 31, 2012 - Florida

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

2012 Iowa Caucus Democrat and Republican Results

Results will be posted once the "Official" results are available.

Update:  Republican caucus results will be certified two weeks after the caucus.

Sources:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120107/NEWS09/301070034/1007/NEWS05

Video: Iowa Caucus Song 2012

Intrade Markets Predict Mitt Romney 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus Win

Related Posts: Latest Intrade Prediction Market Data on Kentucky and Oregon Democratic Primaries,  Pennsylvania Primary Predictions, Latest Intrade Prediction Market Data on Pennsylvania Primary, Intrade Presidential Winner Chart, Latest Intrade Predictions on North Carolina and Indiana Primaries

Intrade currently has 11 markets running associated with the 2012 Iowa Caucus to be held Tuesday, January 3, 2012.

• In my experience Intrade markets have historically been reliable predictors of election results.  For example, during the 2008 presidential primary season Intrade's closing prices for the Kentucky primary for Hillary Clinton were $96.10 to Barak Obama's $3.00.
• Hillary Clinton won the Kentucky primary with 65% of the vote.
• The 2008 Oregon primary market showed Barak Obama leading with a closing price of $97.00 to Hillary Clinton's $2.80.
• Barak Obama won the Oregon primary with 59% of the vote.
• Currently, Intrade shows the Republican candidates have the following chance of winning today's caucus:                                        

                                        45% Mitt Romney
                                        28% Ron Paul
                                        24% Rick Santorum
                                        0.9% Newt Gingrich
                                        0.2% Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann
                                        0.1% Jon Huntsman

Please check back tomorrow for Iowa caucus results.

Source: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932