By: Andrew Romano
Sometimes we MSMers get carried away.Take Tuesday, for example. When the Pennsylvania returns rolled in around 9:15 p.m. and the networks crowned Hillary Clinton the winner, it took what seemed like only a few seconds for the storyline to set in: the former First Lady has resurrected her campaign with yet another death-defying, double-digit victory in a big industrial state--all thanks to white, working-class voters, whose reluctance to back Obama bodes ill for his chances in the general election (and therefore makes Clinton's electability argument easier for superdelegates to swallow).
There is, of course, some truth to that narrative. Clinton won. Obama lost. And she crushed him 66-33 among whites who earn less than $50,000 a year. But the headlines were also incredibly simplistic--and at least as reflective of the media's insatiable appetite for plot twists as, you know, reality. (That's what happens after Chris Matthews is forced to endure seven weeks without a primary to slobber over cover.) Now that we've all had some time to settle down, though, I'd thought it'd be helpful to affix two necessary asterisks to the (increasingly tall) tale of the Pennsylvania primary:
*Double-digits: Earlier this month, omnipotent CW-arbiter Mark Halperin wrote that the number one thing Hillary Clinton had to do in Pennsylvania was "win the popular vote by more than 10.5%." If not, he added, "the media will say she didn’t beat expectations (and her Ohio margin)." Pretty soon, every Beltway blogger and bloviator was echoing his prediction: she needs to win by 10 points, they said; anything short of double-digits = disappointment. Although somewhat arbitrary, this bar seemed reasonable enough. After all, Clinton arrived in Pennsylvania with significant demographic advantages and a 20-percent head start in the polls; failing to at least match her Ohio performance could only be considered a letdown. But a funny thing happened after the polls closed on Tuesday. Around 8:00, every political correspondent in the country got a glimpse at early exits that either showed Clinton beating Obama by a mere four points--or Obama leading Clinton. But as the returns rolled in, Clinton's lead widened, and by midnight, she was up by a "staggering" 10 percent with 95 percent of the votes counted. Their expectations lowered by inaccurate exit polls, the Tim Russerts of the world went to sleep Tuesday with the storyline set: "Obama had Hillary on the ropes and she fought him off with pure grit and determination. Impressive! She's back!" Hence the headlines.
View complete article at http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/04/25/two-keystone-state-asterisks.aspx.
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