Catching Up on the Republican 2012 Primary

I've been tied up with my paying job and not posting as much as I'd like to lately so let's recap what's happened since we left off:

• Huntsman and Perry are out
• The Iowa caucus results will never be official because of the "lost" votes
• Santorum won Iowa, Romney won New Hampshire and Gingrich won South Carolina
• Gingrich has one win and two fourth place finishes.
• Paul has one second, third and fourth place finishes.
• Romney has one win and two second place finishes.
• Santorum has one win, one third and one fifth place finish,
• Florida's closed primary is up next
• Tentative delegate counts are as follows: Romney 34, Gingrich 28, Paul 10 and Santorum 8.

List of 2012 Republican Presidential Candidates by Age

• 76 Ron Paul (August 20, 1935) - Six days after President Roosevelt signed the Social Security Act into law
• 68 Newt Gingrich (June 17, 1943) & Buddy Roemer (October 4, 1943) - Newt was born on the same day as Barrry Manilow
• 64 Mitt Romney (March 12, 1947) - The day of the Truman Doctrine aka the start of the Cold War 
• 61 Rick Perry (March 4, 1950) - Same day as Emilio Estefan
• 53 Rick Santorum (May 10, 1958) - The number one song was Witch Doctor by David Seville
• 51 Jon Huntsman (March 26, 1960) -  Iraq executed 30 for attack on Pres Kassem

Sources:

http://www.ssa.gov/history/tally.html

http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/truman-doctrine-is-announced

http://www.menziesera.com/number_1_hits/1958.shtml

http://www.historyorb.com/date/1960/march/26

New Hampshire 1/7/2012 Debate Transcript

Here's a quick breakdown of the 2012 ABC/Yahoo!/WMUR New Hampshire GOP primary debate from January 7, 2012 and a link to the full transcript of the debate:

Participants:

• Rick Santorum
• New Gingrich
• Ron Paul
• Mitt Romney
• Rick Perry
• Jon Huntsman

Moderators:

• Diane Sawyer
• George Stephanopoulos
• Josh McElveen

Number of Times Each Candidate Spoke (Includes questions, responses & follow ups):

• 41 - Mitt Romney
• 29 - Rick Santorum
• 22 - Ron Paul
• 17 - Newt Gingrichh
• 14 - Jon Huntsman
• 9 - Rick Perry

Source:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/2012-abcyahoowmur-new-hampshire-gop-primary-debate-transcript/2012/01/07/gIQAk2AAiP_blog.html

Five Republican Primaries/Caucuses in January 2012

Related Posts: 2012 Iowa Caucus Democrat and Republican Results,Video: Iowa Caucus Song 2012, Intrade Markets Predict Mitt Romney 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus Win

The following Republican primaries/caucuses have or will occur in January of 2012:

• January 3, 2012 - Iowa
• January 10, 2012 - New Hampshire
• January 21, 2012 - South Carolina
• January 31, 2012 - Florida

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

2012 Iowa Caucus Democrat and Republican Results

Results will be posted once the "Official" results are available.

Update:  Republican caucus results will be certified two weeks after the caucus.

Sources:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120107/NEWS09/301070034/1007/NEWS05

Video: Iowa Caucus Song 2012

Intrade Markets Predict Mitt Romney 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus Win

Related Posts: Latest Intrade Prediction Market Data on Kentucky and Oregon Democratic Primaries,  Pennsylvania Primary Predictions, Latest Intrade Prediction Market Data on Pennsylvania Primary, Intrade Presidential Winner Chart, Latest Intrade Predictions on North Carolina and Indiana Primaries

Intrade currently has 11 markets running associated with the 2012 Iowa Caucus to be held Tuesday, January 3, 2012.

• In my experience Intrade markets have historically been reliable predictors of election results.  For example, during the 2008 presidential primary season Intrade's closing prices for the Kentucky primary for Hillary Clinton were $96.10 to Barak Obama's $3.00.
• Hillary Clinton won the Kentucky primary with 65% of the vote.
• The 2008 Oregon primary market showed Barak Obama leading with a closing price of $97.00 to Hillary Clinton's $2.80.
• Barak Obama won the Oregon primary with 59% of the vote.
• Currently, Intrade shows the Republican candidates have the following chance of winning today's caucus:                                        

                                        45% Mitt Romney
                                        28% Ron Paul
                                        24% Rick Santorum
                                        0.9% Newt Gingrich
                                        0.2% Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann
                                        0.1% Jon Huntsman

Please check back tomorrow for Iowa caucus results.

Source: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932

Iowa Caucus 101

For the portion of my life that I have been politically aware the Iowa caucus has always been the first nominating contest for Presidential candidates.  This year I decided to ask why and what is the actual outcome?

• Many sites attribute the prominence of the Iowa caucuses to an article published in the New York Times on January 25, 1972 entitled "Iowa Democrats Hold Caucuses, First Step in Picking Delegates".
• Under Title II Section 43.4 of the Iowa code caucuses will be "held not later than the fourth Monday in February of each even-numbered year. The date shall be at least eight days earlier than the scheduled date for any meeting, caucus or primary which constitutes the first determining stage of the presidential nominating process in any other state, territory or any other group which has the authority to select delegates in the presidential nomination."
•  Ultimately the outome of the Iowa caucus is that delegates are selected by each party to attend the 99 County conventions.  The number of delegates per county varies by population.  These delegates then go on to choose delegates for the congressional district state convention.
• The congressional district state conventions then select the delegates that go to the national convention. 
• The Republican and Democrat parties each have their own caucus procedures.
• Republicans take a straw vote while Democrats base their caucus outcome on the percentage of voters who support each candidate.
• Third parties are also allowed to hold their own caucuses to send representatives for one presidential candidate and one vice presidential candidate to the nominating conventions.
• The results of all caucus activity are non-binding meaning that delegates may switch their support to another candidate at any time.

Sources:
http://www.legis.state.ia.us/IACODE/1999/II.html
http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F40811FA3C59107A93C7AB178AD85F468785F9&scp=22&sq=iowa+caucus&st=
 http://2012iowacaucus.com/sample-page/

See you in 2012....

We'll be back in 2012 for the Republican presidential primaries.  Thanks for reading!

John McCain on Second Amendment Rights

Related Post: Alan Keyes Spoke at Today's Right to Bear Arms Rally in Pennsylvania, Video of Presidential Candidate Keyes at Right to Keep and Bear Arms Rally

John McCain on 2nd Amendment rights from JohnMcCain.Com:

• John McCain believes that the right of law abiding citizens to keep and bear arms is a fundamental, individual Constitutional right that we have a sacred duty to protect.
• "We have a responsibility to ensure that criminals who violate the law are prosecuted to the fullest, rather than restricting the rights of law abiding citizens."
• John McCain opposes holding gun manufacturers liable for crimes committed by third parties using a firearm.
• John McCain opposes restrictions on so-called "assault rifles".
• He opposes bans on the importation of certain types of ammunition magazines and has voted against such limitations.
• John McCain has supported legislation requiring gun manufacturers to include gun safety devices such as trigger locks in product packaging.
• He cosponsored legislation to lift a ban on the citizens of the District of Columbia from exercising their Constitutional right to bear arms.
• John McCain supports instant criminal background checks to help prohibit criminals from buying firearms.
• He is for standardizing sales procedures at gun shows.
• John McCain has opposed "waiting periods" for law abiding citizen's purchase of firearms.
• He also opposes the confiscation of firearms from private citizens, particularly during times of crisis or emergency.
• John McCain believes in strict, mandatory penalties for criminals who use a firearm in the commission of a crime or illegally possess a firearm.

Source:

http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/77636553-6337-4ecd-b170-49e1c07d2fbd.htm

AP: Music and candidates: An uneasy alliance

The Associated Press
Wednesday, May 28, 2008

EDITOR'S NOTE — This latest chapter of "The Measure of a Nation," a yearlong series of multimedia story packages about the presidency and the 2008 election as seen through the prism of the culture, explores the ways candidates use — and misuse — music in their efforts to capture the White House.

So let's say it's the early 1980s, and you're a rising young musician named John Cougar Mellencamp. You cut a song with a chorus that oozes Jeffersonian democracy and adds a touch of postwar suburban placidity. "Ain't that America — for you and me," you sing in your gravelly Indiana voice. "Ain't that America; we're something to see. Ain't that America: home of the free. Little pink houses for you and me."

Now let's say you're a strategist for Sen. John McCain, Republican candidate for president in 2008. You hear "Pink Houses" 25 years after it was recorded and think to yourself, hey — this is perfect. Let's blast this out at the big guy's rallies and hitch our wagon to Mellencamp's imagery.

That scenario proved problematic when it unfolded earlier this year. First, Mellencamp is a Democrat and activist who has supported John Edwards. He didn't like his work being co-opted and asked McCain to stop. Second, and just as important, "Pink Houses" is an edgy, melancholy song about chances lost and potential wasted:

"'Cause they told me when I was younger, said, 'Boy, you gonna be president.' But just like everything else, those old crazy dreams just kind of came and went."

Click here for the full AP article on Music and Candidates.

Barack Obama on Army Suicide Report

Related Posts: Obama Statement In Support of Striking Bay Area Janitors, Barack Obama "Adopted" By Crow Nation, UPI: Clinton accused of hypocrisy

• Barack Obama issued the following statement in response to the Army Suicide Report:

"Today's news is a tragic reminder of the staggering and ongoing costs of the Iraq war, particularly on our troops and their families. We are more than five years into this war, and the Pentagon and VA are still unprepared to treat the unseen wounds of battle. We know that incidence of psychological injury increase with each additional tour of duty in Iraq, and that our troops are not getting the support they need. Too many are falling through the cracks because they need help but feel they can't get it. When I am President, we'll hire more mental health professionals, increase training to recognize the signs and to reject the stigma of seeking care, and enhance mental health screening and treatment from enlistment, to deployment, to reentry into civilian life. It's time to serve our troops as well as they have served us."

Source: http://www.barackobama.com/2008/05/29/obama_statement_on_army_suicid.php

Clinton Endorsed By 22 South Dakota Native American Leaders

Related Posts: AP Campaign Minute Video: May 30, 2008, Video: "Signs Of Ron Paul Support" in South Dakota, Hillary Clinton's South Dakota Native American Agenda One of Three Native American Superdelegates Forced to Retract Obama Endorsement, Video of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton at Mansfield-Metcalf Event in Montana, Barack Obama "Adopted" By Crow Nation

• In a press release on HillaryClinton.Com her campaign announced endorsements by the following "22 South Dakota Native American Leaders":

Lionel Bordeaux, President, Sinte Gleska University

Shawn Bordeaux, Rosebud Sioux Tribal Councilmember

Floyd Brings Plenty, Oglala Sioux Tribal Councilmember

Anthony Castaway, Rosebud Sioux Tribal Councilmember

Kim Clausen, Oglala Sioux Tribal Councilmember

Carol Crazy Thunder-O’Rourke, Oglala Sioux Tribal Councilmember

Leonard Crow Dog, Rosebud Sioux Tribe elder

Ron Duke, Oglala Sioux Tribal Councilmember

Cecilia Fire Thunder, Former Chairwoman, Oglala Sioux Tribal Council

Phillip Good Crow, Oglala Sioux Tribal Councilmember

Lewis Good Voice Eagle, Rosebud Sioux Tribal Councilmember

Scott Herman, Rosebud Sioux Tribal Councilmember

William "BeBe" Long, Rosebud Sioux Tribal Councilmember

Trent "Okie" Poignee, Rosebud Sioux Tribal Councilmember

Thomas Poor Bear, Oglala Sioux Tribal Councilmember

Francis Pumpkin Seed, Shannon County Commissioner

Lula Red Cloud

Brandon Sazue, Sr., Chairman, Crow Creek Sioux Tribal Council

Tom Shortbull, President, Oglala Lakota College and Former State Senator

Michael J. Valandra, Sr., Rosebud Sioux Tribal Councilmember

Carl Waln, Former Chairman, Rosebud Sioux Tribe

Connie Whirlwind Horse, Shannon County Commissioner

Source: http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/release/view/?id=7870

Indecision 2008: A Billionaire's Guide to the Candidates: Ralph Nader

Related Posts: Why Indecision 2008 Endorsed Alan Keyes for President, Ralph Nader, An Unreasonable Candidate?


POSTED BY: Billionaires4Bush

Unreasonable Man Ralph Nader makes it easy. Sure, he's owned corporate stock, dissed the Green Party, and been accused of "spoiling" the election chances of Democrats paddling towards the callow middle -- but what can he do for the Billionaires? The splash page for his website asks "which side are you on?" On one side: "Nader/ Gonzales '08." On the other: corporate greed, corporate power, corporate control, the health insurance industry, agribusiness giants, corporate criminals, nuclear power, big banks, drug companies, corporate Democrats, polluters, unionbusters, war profiteers, credit card companies, Wall Street, Big Oil, and corporate Republicans. Have I died and gone to Halliburton? Sign me up for Column B!

Click here for the full Indecision2008.Com article.

AP Campaign Minute Video: May 30, 2008

Video: "Signs Of Ron Paul Support" in South Dakota

Related Posts: Ron Paul: The Economy: Another Casualty of War, Republican Primary Results for Kentucky and Oregon Ignored by MSM, St. Louis Post-Dispatch: Paul allies have asked FBI to investigate Mo GOP, Hillary Clinton's South Dakota Native American Agenda

Obama Statement In Support of Striking Bay Area Janitors

• Barack Obama issued the following press release on the Bay Area janitor's strike:

Chicago, IL — Senator Obama today released the following statement in support of striking Bay Area janitors.

"As thousands of Bay Area janitors continue their courageous fight to win a higher standard of living for themselves and their families, I offer my support."

"It's thanks to the bravery and sacrifice of these workers—and union men and women before them—that we've made progress in the fight to ensure that every American has rights on the job and the chance to improve their lives."

"The hundreds of mostly Latino janitors who walked off the job this week throughout the Bay Area took a stand against the unacceptable and ever-growing divide between the wealthiest and poorest among us—and they're inspiring other working people to do the same."

"This week, when janitors traded their brooms for picket signs, they also sent a message about the urgent need for good-paying jobs with health care and dignity to ensure that families aren't just surviving, but thriving. By speaking out against the injustice of having to share a home with other families just to stay alive, these hardworking janitors are demonstrating their abiding faith in the power of hope—and paving the way for others around this country to follow in their footsteps."

"It is my own hope that the employers in the Bay Area will take real responsibility for the kind of jobs that are offered within the confines of their offices and take swift
measures to bring the janitors back to work."

"Until they do, the Bay Area janitors will have my support."

Source: http://www.barackobama.com/2008/05/23/obama_statement_in_support_of_1.php

Hillary Clinton T-Shirt Design Contest Finalists

Related Posts: Candidate Contests: Dinner with Obama or Elton John Concert & After Party with Hillary, Winners of Dinner with Barack Obama Contest, T-Shirt Design Contest on HillaryClinton.Com, MoveOn.Org Announces Winner of Obama in 30 Seconds Ad Contest

The following are the five finalists in Hillary Clinton's T-Shirt Design Contest:

John McCain Hispanic/Immigration Memorial Day Web Ad

Related Post: McCain to Attend La Raza Annual Convention in July



Ad Transcript:

JOHN MCCAIN: My friends, I want you, the next time you're down in Washington, D.C., to go to the Vietnam War Memorial and look at the names engraved in black granite. You'll find a whole lot of Hispanic names.

When you go to Iraq or Afghanistan today, you're going to see a whole lot of people who are of Hispanic background.

You're even going to meet some of the few thousand that are still green card holders who are not even citizens of this country, who love this country so much that they're willing to risk their lives in its service in order to accelerate their path to citizenship and enjoy the bountiful, blessed nation.

So let's, from time to time, remember that these are God's children. They must come into country legally, but they have enriched our culture and our nation as every generation of immigrants before them.

Thank you.

I'm John McCain and I approve this message.

Will Ron Paul Win National Delegates at Washington State GOP Convention?

Related Posts: McCain Wins Republican February 19th Primaries By 393,307 Votes, Huckabee Get Second Chance in Washington State on 2/19/08, More Ron Paul Delegates for May Washington State Republican Convention

• The Washington State GOP convention will be held Thursday, May 29, 2008 through Saturday, May 31, 2008 at the Spokane Convention Center.
• Despite the fact that John McCain is the presumptive nominee The Seattle Times reports that in many counties Ron Paul has substantial support.
• According to The Seattle Times in Spokane County (5th Congressional District), 106 of the 114 delegates going to the state convention are Ron Paul supporters, along with 11 of 13 delegates from Stevens County, four of eight from Asotin County, and two of five from both Lincoln and Ferry counties.
• As has been the case in other states, the Washington State GOP has already instituted one last minute rules change concerning delegates. It is uncertain how that change will affect the Ron Paul supporters. The text of the rules change resolution can be viewed here.

Sources:

http://www.wsrp.org/FlexPage.aspx?area=2008-Convention#bottom

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2004437950_webpaulgop25.html

http://www.kndo.com/Global/story.asp?S=8378786&nav=menu484_2_8