2012 Iowa Caucus Democrat and Republican Results

Results will be posted once the "Official" results are available.

Update:  Republican caucus results will be certified two weeks after the caucus.

Sources:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120107/NEWS09/301070034/1007/NEWS05

Video: Iowa Caucus Song 2012

Intrade Markets Predict Mitt Romney 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus Win

Related Posts: Latest Intrade Prediction Market Data on Kentucky and Oregon Democratic Primaries,  Pennsylvania Primary Predictions, Latest Intrade Prediction Market Data on Pennsylvania Primary, Intrade Presidential Winner Chart, Latest Intrade Predictions on North Carolina and Indiana Primaries

Intrade currently has 11 markets running associated with the 2012 Iowa Caucus to be held Tuesday, January 3, 2012.

• In my experience Intrade markets have historically been reliable predictors of election results.  For example, during the 2008 presidential primary season Intrade's closing prices for the Kentucky primary for Hillary Clinton were $96.10 to Barak Obama's $3.00.
• Hillary Clinton won the Kentucky primary with 65% of the vote.
• The 2008 Oregon primary market showed Barak Obama leading with a closing price of $97.00 to Hillary Clinton's $2.80.
• Barak Obama won the Oregon primary with 59% of the vote.
• Currently, Intrade shows the Republican candidates have the following chance of winning today's caucus:                                        

                                        45% Mitt Romney
                                        28% Ron Paul
                                        24% Rick Santorum
                                        0.9% Newt Gingrich
                                        0.2% Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann
                                        0.1% Jon Huntsman

Please check back tomorrow for Iowa caucus results.

Source: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932

Iowa Caucus 101

For the portion of my life that I have been politically aware the Iowa caucus has always been the first nominating contest for Presidential candidates.  This year I decided to ask why and what is the actual outcome?

• Many sites attribute the prominence of the Iowa caucuses to an article published in the New York Times on January 25, 1972 entitled "Iowa Democrats Hold Caucuses, First Step in Picking Delegates".
• Under Title II Section 43.4 of the Iowa code caucuses will be "held not later than the fourth Monday in February of each even-numbered year. The date shall be at least eight days earlier than the scheduled date for any meeting, caucus or primary which constitutes the first determining stage of the presidential nominating process in any other state, territory or any other group which has the authority to select delegates in the presidential nomination."
•  Ultimately the outome of the Iowa caucus is that delegates are selected by each party to attend the 99 County conventions.  The number of delegates per county varies by population.  These delegates then go on to choose delegates for the congressional district state convention.
• The congressional district state conventions then select the delegates that go to the national convention. 
• The Republican and Democrat parties each have their own caucus procedures.
• Republicans take a straw vote while Democrats base their caucus outcome on the percentage of voters who support each candidate.
• Third parties are also allowed to hold their own caucuses to send representatives for one presidential candidate and one vice presidential candidate to the nominating conventions.
• The results of all caucus activity are non-binding meaning that delegates may switch their support to another candidate at any time.

Sources:
http://www.legis.state.ia.us/IACODE/1999/II.html
http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F40811FA3C59107A93C7AB178AD85F468785F9&scp=22&sq=iowa+caucus&st=
 http://2012iowacaucus.com/sample-page/

See you in 2012....

We'll be back in 2012 for the Republican presidential primaries.  Thanks for reading!

John McCain on Second Amendment Rights

Related Post: Alan Keyes Spoke at Today's Right to Bear Arms Rally in Pennsylvania, Video of Presidential Candidate Keyes at Right to Keep and Bear Arms Rally

John McCain on 2nd Amendment rights from JohnMcCain.Com:

• John McCain believes that the right of law abiding citizens to keep and bear arms is a fundamental, individual Constitutional right that we have a sacred duty to protect.
• "We have a responsibility to ensure that criminals who violate the law are prosecuted to the fullest, rather than restricting the rights of law abiding citizens."
• John McCain opposes holding gun manufacturers liable for crimes committed by third parties using a firearm.
• John McCain opposes restrictions on so-called "assault rifles".
• He opposes bans on the importation of certain types of ammunition magazines and has voted against such limitations.
• John McCain has supported legislation requiring gun manufacturers to include gun safety devices such as trigger locks in product packaging.
• He cosponsored legislation to lift a ban on the citizens of the District of Columbia from exercising their Constitutional right to bear arms.
• John McCain supports instant criminal background checks to help prohibit criminals from buying firearms.
• He is for standardizing sales procedures at gun shows.
• John McCain has opposed "waiting periods" for law abiding citizen's purchase of firearms.
• He also opposes the confiscation of firearms from private citizens, particularly during times of crisis or emergency.
• John McCain believes in strict, mandatory penalties for criminals who use a firearm in the commission of a crime or illegally possess a firearm.

Source:

http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/77636553-6337-4ecd-b170-49e1c07d2fbd.htm

AP: Music and candidates: An uneasy alliance

The Associated Press
Wednesday, May 28, 2008

EDITOR'S NOTE — This latest chapter of "The Measure of a Nation," a yearlong series of multimedia story packages about the presidency and the 2008 election as seen through the prism of the culture, explores the ways candidates use — and misuse — music in their efforts to capture the White House.

So let's say it's the early 1980s, and you're a rising young musician named John Cougar Mellencamp. You cut a song with a chorus that oozes Jeffersonian democracy and adds a touch of postwar suburban placidity. "Ain't that America — for you and me," you sing in your gravelly Indiana voice. "Ain't that America; we're something to see. Ain't that America: home of the free. Little pink houses for you and me."

Now let's say you're a strategist for Sen. John McCain, Republican candidate for president in 2008. You hear "Pink Houses" 25 years after it was recorded and think to yourself, hey — this is perfect. Let's blast this out at the big guy's rallies and hitch our wagon to Mellencamp's imagery.

That scenario proved problematic when it unfolded earlier this year. First, Mellencamp is a Democrat and activist who has supported John Edwards. He didn't like his work being co-opted and asked McCain to stop. Second, and just as important, "Pink Houses" is an edgy, melancholy song about chances lost and potential wasted:

"'Cause they told me when I was younger, said, 'Boy, you gonna be president.' But just like everything else, those old crazy dreams just kind of came and went."

Click here for the full AP article on Music and Candidates.